Determinants of coping strategies among agropastoralists in Kitui and Isiolo counties, Kenya

Abstract

Agropastoralists in Kenya’s Arid and Semi-arid Lands (ASALs) face various shocks that threaten their livelihoods and expose them to significant health and economic risks. While existing studies often focus on climate-related shocks, they frequently overlook other challenges faced by these communities. A comprehensive understanding of how agropastoralists manage diverse shocks is essential to developing effective vulnerability reduction strategies. This study examined the major shocks experienced by agropastoral households in Kenya’s ASALs, their primary coping strategies, and the determinants informing the choice of the strategies adopted. Using cross-sectional data from 371 households in Isiolo (203) and Kitui (168) counties, this study applied descriptive analysis and multivariate probit (MVP) models to assess coping strategies and influencing factors. From 2016 to 2021, households faced shocks, such as droughts, livestock pests and diseases, crop pests, theft, and intercommunal conflicts. Regional variations were observed: crop pests were common in Kitui, whereas Isiolo experienced higher theft and conflict rates. Coping strategies include income diversification, asset sales, increased farm labor, and reduced food expenditure. Severe droughts and conflicts led to migration, while floods caused extreme measures such as withdrawing children from school. Key factors influencing coping strategies include household demographics, farm characteristics, and market proximity. Households with more adults, higher literacy, or greater income from crops and livestock are less likely to adopt costly strategies. This study recommends integrated interventions to enhance resilience to both climate and non-climate shocks.