Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties

Abstract

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.